Wednesday, December 10, 2014

What Is (Actually) Wrong with Michigan Basketball


Photo: Allison Farrand/UMHoops.com

Michigan’s loss to a conference-less NJIT on Saturday can no longer be written off as a statistical anomaly. Yes, that NJIT – the New Jersey Institute of Technology—is not exactly basketball lore. My beloved Wolverines followed Saturday’s putrid effort with a 45-42 home loss to a bitter in-state rival, Eastern Michigan. By bitter in-state rival I actually mean a non-conference doormat that hadn’t beaten Michigan in 17 years.

Michigan’s consecutive meltdowns are low-hanging fruit for college basketball beat writers. ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan posted an article last night in which he aimlessly wondered aloud what’s wrong with Michigan while failing to provide a definitive answer.

Eamonn: I’m here for you bro. Here’s my take:

In the macro-sense, Michigan’s struggles can largely be placed into two categories: youth/inexperience and (relatively) inefficient offensive production.

Let me start with the latter since it requires more explanation. John Beilein’s teams are not known for their defensive prowess – that is no secret. But average to below-average defense is passable when it’s accompanied by lethally efficient offense. Michigan had the most efficient offense in the country in each of the last two seasons, per kenpom (http://kenpom.com/). Watching Michigan’s offense from 2012-2014 was like watching poetry in motion  -- back cuts, screen slips, floor spacing, deadly shooting – it was basketball in its purest form. 

Spike Albrecht (left) and Zak Irvin as the buzzer sounded in Michigan's 45-42 loss to Eastern Michigan. Photo: Dustin Johnson/UMHoops.com
 What I witnessed in last night’s dumpster fire of a basketball game was a far cry from the brand of hoops with which I’ve become obsessed. Not surprisingly to me, Zak Irvin didn’t make a Stauskas-esque jump from year one to year two – and that’s okay because it’s implausible to again expect a low usage freshman morphing into conference MVP the following season. But Irvin is only of only 4 guys Beilein can trust out there; Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, and Derrick Walton Jr. being the others. Irvin is the only player on this roster with a true scorer’s DNA – but his current level won’t allow him to do so efficiently in the rugged Big 10.  Therein lies the problem.  

The youth/inexperience issue is equally worrisome. With the exception of Trey Burke, few freshman are immediately able to become key cogs in Michigan’s offensive attack because it takes considerable time to adapt to Beilein’s complex scheme. But I’m at least accustomed to seeing freshman contribute in some capacity – especially at the guard/wing position. Neither Aubrey Dawkins nor Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman has seen considerable minutes–- let alone in crunch time. The result is 38-40 minutes per game for LeVert, Irvin and Walton barring foul trouble. I’ve been proud of the way the young bigs, Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal, have battled, but they miss block-outs and are late on defensive rotations too often. The drop-off of production at the wing spots is equally profound in the frontcourt; Jordan Morgan made so many winning plays.

This is not a coaching issue – Beilein is a top 5 coach in America; he always always always maximizes talent. This is not a locker-room issue – this team doesn’t have any cancerous personalities and the team hierarchy, led by LeVert and Albrecht’s captainship, is well defined. Maybe Team 99 is starting to accept the unfortunate truth: the leftovers from teams with four 1st round picks in 2 years plus 5 freshman, none of whom are ready to contribute, will likely result in an NIT bid. But I’m certainly not ready to give up hope yet.

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