Week 4 NFL picks are below with bits of commentary interspersed. Picks in bold. Home teams follow '@' or precede 'vs.'
Redskins (-4) vs. Giants
So the Giants may be a little underrated -- as in, they may not be one of the three worst teams in football. But I still don't think they're any good due to shoddy quarterback play in a brand-new offensive scheme and bone-headed play on D/ST (cue Tom Coughlin's face turning an uncomfortable shade of crimson). A noteworthy stat: home teams are outscoring their foes 118-36 in Thursday night games so far this year. And Kirk Cousins (no relation to DeMarcus) is good at football.
49ers (-4.5) vs. Eagles
At 1-2, I would contend that the Niners are still among the best 5 teams in football (or they will be by the year's end). While San Fran's defense is often wrongly ascribed as elite, their physicality may disrupt Philly's offense, largely predicated on timing and precision. Recall that during the second half of PHI/WSH on Sunday, four of the five Eagles offensive linemen were back-ups. Justin Smith is licking his chops.
Packers (-1.5) @ Bears
I understand there is a lot of sharp action on Chicago. But Chicago's only truly impressive performance was when they had seemingly no business winning, but somehow hi-jacked that game from SF in the first regular season game at Levi's Stadium. The Packers have certainly struggled, in large part due to a feeble offensive line, but A-Rod calmed my worries on 540 ESPN Milwaukee when he told Packer Nation to "R-E-L-A-X"...Yes, he actually said that.
Bills (+3) @ Texans
Dolphins @ Raiders (+3.5)
Colts (-7.5) vs. Titans
Panthers @ Ravens (-3.5)
I understand this is not geometry. There isn't, per se, a transitive property of sports. But...teams with mutual opponents this early in the season have to tell us something, right? Baltimore stymied Pittsburgh at home on Thursday in week 2, and the Steelers crushed Carolina (on the road) on Sunday. If-so-fact-o, I like Baltimore ATS.
Lions (-2) @ Jets
Geno Smith is like Hunts Ketchup. He sucks.
Buccaneers @ Steelers (-8)
Jaguars (+13) @ Chargers
Chargers coming off huge win vs SEA, cross-country vs Buffalo, back home.
Since the Jags sprinted out to a surprising 17-0 1st half lead against Philly in week 1, they have been outscored 116-27. Why then, you ask, am I taking the points? Consider this: the Bolts had an emotional win at home against the Seahawks in week 2, then traveled across the country face Buffalo (at noon) in week 3. This has all the makings of a let-down game for San Diego -- and by let-down, I only mean their inability to win by 13 points.
Falcons (-3) @ Vikings
Saints (-3) @ Cowboys [SNF]
Patriots @ Chiefs (+3) [MNF]
Oh, and if you were wondering why there was an asterisk in the title of this post, it's because this season I'm 0-5 ATS in games in which I bet
