Thursday, July 23, 2015

A Reason to Love Klay Thompson

Photo: Yahoo!
Klay Thompson has in his quiver one of the quickest, most mechanically-sound jumpers in the NBA. And yet, for presumably the first time in his life, he isn't the best shooter on his team. That is, of course, because he plays alongside the greatest shooter who ever lived. And this has been addressed in NBA columns, podcasts, etc. 

Thompson knows he isn't the best player on his team. I think it's vitally important for the 2nd best player to commit himself to being the "Best 2nd Best Player" possible. 


Klay was wide-open after Steph's mind-numbing ball-handling display, but Steph hoisted an impossible shot anyway. (For the record: Steph Curry and "forcing" should never be used in the same sentence). The shot went down, and you can see a lowe-key fist-pump from Klay. It wasn't a reaction to what Jeff Van Gundy called "maybe the greatest move he's ever seen," but instead, a "Yes - we just extended our lead to 15 against an in-state rival who talks a lot of shit" fist-pump. I saw him do this on numerous occasions this year.

Maybe it's easy to resign yourself to 2nd banana alongside Curry -- who's such an amiable guy. But that's ignoring the fact that Thompson was the best shooter on every basketball team he played on for the first 21 years of his life AND he'd be the best shooter on nearly every other NBA team. 

He's such a good 2nd best player. Clearly defined team roles is something I value greatly.


Monday, April 27, 2015

Dallas/Houston Game 4 Observations



I attended Game 4 of Mavs/Rockets in Dallas on Sunday. I had no rooting interest in this game. A few things of note:
  • Terrance Jones hit two impressive, right-handed floaters in traffic in the 1st quarter. I hadn't seen that from him before. Maybe he has been attending the Donatas Motiejunas Ambidextrous Jump Hook Academy. More on Jones, my friend Brian made a comment about how Terrance Jones, in his two years at Kentucky, was a bit of an afterthought given he played alongside the likes of Anthony Davis, Brandon Knight, MKG, etc. He was a role player -- a really good one. So he was refining that skill in college whereas most guys were stars of their college team. 
  • I sat ~20 rows above the Mavs bench. And I like being able to clearly see the bench activity, particularly during time-outs. But on a few occasions, Tyson Chandler would stand up during a defensive possession and shout coverages to teammates. It was very evident he cares about winning - especially lining up across from Dwight.
  • Speaking of D12...At one point he was 1-11 from the FT line (and finished 3-13). I think I could make 1-11 of the promotional "Recliner Shots" from UT basketball games. That's just silly.
  • Obviously the Hack-A-Dwight strategy hurts Howard's confidence, but I also noticed how much it bothers Harden (and everyone else) by disrupting any kind of offensive rhythm. Harden had a pretty pedestrian night (by his high standards).
  • Not game related, but damn, the American Airlines Center is nice. It looks like a musuem. I've been to several games there, but it is always a pleasant surprise.
  • The Mavs made a point to feed Aminu in the post a few times in the first quarter while he was being guarded by Harden. It's a good idea until they (smartly) realized that Aminu just isn't going to be able to score efficiently against Harden, who a) is so damn strong and b) is a pretty good on-ball, isolation defender. When Houston plays a team who doesn't have a guy to "hide" Harden on, the Rockets will be in trouble simply because he is a human life-preserver for the Houston offense, and any significant energy expended on the defensive end may cause a Houston offensive implosion.
  • Basketball geeks love the corner 3; it's 21 inches closer than the other 3-point attempts, and it's 1.5x more valuable than a 2-pointer. Dirk Nowitzki, floor-spacer extrodonaire, hoisted a corner 3 last night and it just looked...weird? The numbers confirmed that sentiment. Dirk has 274 3PA this year, and only 11 have come from the corner, per NBA.com/Stats. He missed.
  • Which leads me to my last point. A few weeks ago, Bob Fitzgerald, Warriors play-by-play guy, mentioned a trend he and his partner had noticed throughout the year: when an opponent misses a corner 3 against the Warriors, it leads to a transition lay-up or dunk. So I've kept an eye out for it, and the elite teams teams seem to convert those chances more often than not. When Dirk missed his corner 3 attempt, the Rockets fudged up a transition opportunity on the other end. Just a fun thing to monitor going forward. 

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Evaluating Final Four Draft Prospects

Photo: SI via Cal Sports Media via AP

Find guys who you think can be starters (or contributors, at least) on a title team. That's the end goal of the NBA Draft. Sometimes the #1 overall pick's ceiling is key defensive cog on a title contender (Andrew Bogut). Rarely does a lottery pick develop into a mega-star. Below are some scatter-brained thoughts on NBA prospects from Final Four teams that appeared on both DraftExpress and ESPN's top 30 rankings. Note: S.O.A.T.T. denotes "Starter On A Title Team?"

Jahlil Okafor -- Duke C

I remember exactly when I reserved a seat on the "Jahlil #1 Draft Pick Hype" bandwagon. With 18:46  remaining in the 2nd half of Wisconsin/Duke from December, Okaford caught the ball in the post. He spun baseline and had a step on Kaminsky, he then faked a reverse and pivoted back for a wide open lay-in. (At 3:29 of this video). He has a tremendous feel for the game -- he leverages people with his hips. And at 278 pounds...that's a lot of leverage. He uprooted upper-classmen all year. Has really soft hands and a deft touch around the rim. The struggles from the free thrown line are concerning, but his jumper certainly doesn't look broken. I was impressed with his defense in isolation situations in Indy. His feet tend to look a little slow in pick-and-roll situations against proficient guards, and he's more earthbound than your ideal NBA rim protector, but again, I think his instincts will mask some of the physical deficiencies.

S.O.A.T.T: Yes

Karl Towns -- Kentucky PF/C

I admittedly didn't watch as much of Towns this year as I would have liked. His game lacks some polish, but he's an undeniably great talent. Legit NBA rim protector and defender with a 36.5" vertical per DraftExpress. Not to be nit-picky, but the 57% FG percentage was a little underwhelming; Okaford shot 66% on a hundred more attempts, Anthony Davis shot 62% as a frosh at UK, etc. Maybe, since Towns was used on only 23% of Kentucky's possessions, and played only 21 mpg, that he didn't have the opportunity to show all the arrows in his quiver. Maybe. Really impressed by the 81 FT%. I'm both excited and unsure how what his NBA ceiling is.

S.O.A.T.T: Yes

Justise Winslow -- Duke SF

Winslow is riding the wave as a potential number one selection of late. Obviously I like his versatility on defense; he's naturally a real strong kid, but he has good feet as well. Has the inherent advantage of being a lefty ala James Harden, but he more reminds me of Wade. Uncanny knack for getting to the rim -- he's a freight train in the open court. He finished the the year 41% from three, but is a slasher first. Scored in double figures in 20 of 21 games to end the year. He's a rich man's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Stat-sheet stuffer.

S.O.A.T.T: Yes

Willie Cauley-Stein -- Kentucky C

If I could go into a scientific lab and genetically produce a human that is the model for a 2015 rim protecting NBA big man, I would name him Willie Cauley-Stein. If you throw the ball relatively near the rim, he will go get it. Very quick off his feet, rotates well. I was disappointed to see how much trouble he had staying in front of Dekker, who is a great athlete in his own right. But I've seen WCS gobble up smaller, ostensibly quicker wings throughout the course of the year. His BPG regressed from a ludicrous 2.9 to 1.7 this year -- probably because his team had other shot blockers. A young Tyson Chandler. Very high on him.

S.O.A.T.T: Yes

Frank Kaminsky -- Wisconsin C

Frank the Tank is obviously a great story -- an unprecedented rise from borderline scholarship player to NPOY. I was impressed with how he played against NBA size and length this year. Has great ball skills and a nice touch. He keeps defenders off-balance with a dirty spin move. He'll need to be able to take and make NBA 3s to be an effective cog on a good team, but I think he will adjust well. His 3P% rose in each of his four years. He handles the ball well -- I bet Brad Stevens would kill for this guy.

S.O.A.T.T: No

Devin Booker -- Kentucky SG

He has the most aesthetically pleasing jumper in the NCAA -- and accordingly, is touted as the best shooter in this draft. At 6'6 Booker has the prototypical size of an NBA SG. But Booker didn't make more than two 3s in his final 19 games -- and you have to believe the majority of his attempts were pretty good looks. Struggles to finish in transition when his shot is well-contested. He navigates off-ball screens well, nice mid-range game (which is mitigated by the increasing trend of teams shooting only from the paint or from 3). Overall nice prospect; bench player on a good team.

S.O.A.T.T: No

Sam Dekker -- Wisconsin SF

I have a soft spot for guys who hit game-winners in high school state championships: Dekker joins D-Rose & Gordon Hayward; the latter two have both fared well in the NBA. Speaking of Hayward, Dekker is similar, although I don't foresee him every eclipsing Hayward's outside shooting. He attacks the rim well and shot 63 (!)% on 2-pointers this year. His 3P% has dipped in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin; he isn't a born-sniper, but hit some clutch 3s in the tournament (against Arizona, Kentucky). Underrated athlete. His frame filled out nicely from year 1 to year 3.

S.O.A.T.T: No

Trey Lyles -- Kentucky PF

The few times I tuned in to watch Kentucky drub an SEC foe, I was really impressed by Lyles. Big fella who can face-up and shoot it from 10-15 feet. He also showed some back-to-the-basket prowess, albeit against smaller defenders. But he kind of disappeared late in the tourney. He only grabbed 1 rebound in 29 minutes in UK's loss to Wisconsin. He's a pretty good athlete whose overall game would stand out anywhere but UK. Again, he wields a nice jumper, but certainly didn't have the green light from 3: 4-29 on the year. Could turn into a solid second-unit guy on a good team in a similar mold to Marreese Speights.

S.O.A.T.T: No



Sunday, March 22, 2015

QuickPost: Trey Burke's NBA Destiny

Photo: AP/Rick Bowmer

Yes, after Trey Burke cemented himself in college basketball lore with his legendary shot against Kansas in the 2013 NCAA tournament, I naively foresaw a 10+ year NBA starter. Unfortuantely, that is no longer the case. I do, however, think Trey Burke can be a productive NBA player-- just not as a starter on a contending team. The Jazz have also reasoned as much; long term, it's better for Utah to give Dante Exum more mintues this year. Exum, the spindly first-year player from Australia, has a significantly higher NBA ceiling, namely on defense, than does Trey Burke. And the more I remember how Burke played in college, the more I like Burke as a "heat check" bench guy.

Last night's tilt with Golden State highlights what I'd want to see from Burke going forward if I was Quinn Snyder. Burke will struggle on both sides of the ball against an elite PG like Steph Curry; but throw him out there against Leandro Barbosa and the results may be different. Burke scored 20 pts. (5-11 3pt.), and handed out 5 assists (to 1 TO) in 28 minutes last night.

Burke certainly isn't the template of efficiency at his position. He is at his best when he's hunting shots in a stretch of the game where his team needs volume shooting. He's a willing and able distributor, but, again, that's not his game. He never put up gaudy assist numbers in college (or in the NBA), but has always had a respectable Assist/Turnover ratio.

Check out this possession where Barbosa is on the wrong end of this  "Don't Disrespect Me Like That" 3:


Trey Burke's NBA destiny is to be a weapon off the bench who can lead the 2nd unit by generating quick-strike offense and distributing well enough to make the players around him better.

I like what's brewing in Utah. When Alec Burks returns next year, and if the Jazz's basketball gurus can figure out how to make the frontcourt duo of Rudy Gobert/Derrick Favors work offensively, this team may be more than just frisky. Hopefully Trey Burke will solidify his identity that will follow him wherever his NBA journey leads him.



Thursday, February 26, 2015

An Ode to Derrick Rose

Photo: ESPN

During the 4th quarter of Mavs/Raptors, the finale of last night's slate of NBA games, the Chicago Bulls announced Derrick Rose had (again) torn the meniscus in his right knee. At this stage in the "Derrick Rose Injury Timeline" I no longer feel both shocked and sad -- just the sad. My friends and I immediately tried to reconcile the meniscus tear as "not the worst type of knee injury", which I suppose is true. Surprisingly undeterred from the Rose news, we went on with our night. We watched the latest episode of "Better Call Saul", a prequel, spin-off of Breaking Bad, which I would recommend if you enjoyed the latter.

Afterward, when I crawled into bed, a notion I had been grappling with for much of this NBA season was cemented: Derrick Rose is done. So I did what any young, right-minded NBA fan would do: I grabbed a box of Kleenex, and wept through 50 minutes of 2008-2011 Derrick Rose YouTube clips. Here's my favorite:


Skip to 1:15. The PA announcer mentions the college of every other Bulls starter, but Rose, who's "Frommmmmmm CHICAGO." People forget that Rose is a homegrown product -- #1 overall pick from Simeon (same HS as Jabari Parker), Rose played in and started in 88 of 89 games in year one, 83 of 87 in year two, and 97 of 98 in year three. Rose won an MVP during LeBron's absolute prime -- and did so at the age of 22. To recap: I'm 22, and my greatest accomplishment to date is a DiMaggio-like, 16-day streak of consecutive days making my bed.

What you'll see in that embedded video above which I realize no one watched is the essence of prime Derrick Rose. He had this uncanny ability to find crevices in the defense and get the ball up on the rim amongst the trees. Remember he's only 6'2.5(!). The 40+ inch vertical also helped. A blow-by guy who made everything from 8 feet and in. I liked his jumper much more when he was younger because he could elevate and get a little more arc on an already naturally flat shot (in 2014-2015 it looked like he was trying to shoot a bowling ball). Rose was also the first guy that had opposing team's TV announcers saying "That's Your Point Guard?!?!"

When attacking the rim, DRose had this unique ability to violently protect the ball -- it's kind of hard to explain but restated: Rose often exploded into the paint seemingly out of control until the very moment he released the ball -- when the ball came softly out of his hands. He didn't need to slow down to shoot -- most guys can beat their guy off the dribble, but have to slow down a second before the release to gauge how much power to assign to that particular shot.

Last nostalgic video, I promise: Derrick Rose baptizing a young Goran Dragic. Ludicrous.


I'm fully aware I haven't yet shared any original, ground-breaking news or analysis with regard to Derrick Rose. But here's my one theory: losing Derrick Rose is mitigated by the fact that we have Russell Westbrook -- another, 6'3-ish, gravity-defying point guard who, like Rose, is also more often a recipient of alley oops than any other PG in recent memory. Obviously, no one is happy about Rose's injury-laden career, but he became semi-exposable when Westbrook ascended to a top 5 player at his position. Derrick Rose was doing Russell Westbrook things before Russell Westbrook.

At the end of the day, Rose is 26 years old. I would love if -- against all odds -- Rose salvaged his über promising early career with a title or two in the next decade. But perhaps it was too good to be true: a hometown kid and mind-numbing athlete, with an on-court disposition that rubbed few (if any) the wrong way, couldn't stay on the court. Godspeed, #1. 


Monday, February 2, 2015

NBA Gambling Nightmare Counterparts

In a parallel universe where gambling is legal, have you ever felt confident about a wager until Player X comes in off the bench and shoots (and makes) shots that make you think that a) there are actually Gambling Gods and b) that they are laughing derisively down at you while they high-five each other? I've identified four guys who are loosely characterized by the following: supremely talented & skilled, athletic, have played on many different teams, streaky shooters, and finally, complete dumbasses. But that's both why we love/hate them! And, why they continue to shoot shots that I wouldn't dare attempt in a gym by myself with the basket lowered to 8 feet: because sometimes these shots go in.

Jamal Crawford -- G/F Los Angeles Clippers -- The 4-Point Play G.O.A.T

I wanted to start with JCrossover because I consider him the least streaky of the bunch. As in, I am less angry when he starts doing Jamal Crawford things in large part because he played college hoops in Ann Arbor. The real reason he's the most consistently viable player on this list is because he gets to the foul-line around four times per contest. Crawford has incredible handles; his signature move lives here: R.I.P Kirk Hinrich. The above notwithstanding, when Crawford ignites the crowd with a 4-point play and completely alters the dynamic of a game, and you're inevitably on the wrong end of that exchange, it can be very frustrating.

Nate Robinson -- G Denver Nuggets -- Former Dunk Contest Champ

Remember when Nate Robinson erupted for 23 4th quarter points to give the Derrick Rose-less Bulls a 3-1 series lead over Brooklyn in the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs? If you don't, here's a refresher. Nate has drifted into anonymity because the Nuggets are borderline unwatchable, but a few outlets have indicated that Robinson may be a Clipper by season's end. So let's put him on the backburner until then.

J.R. Smith -- G Cleveland Cavaliers -- "When In Doubt, Shoot It"


Sadly, J.R. is leaving "Gambling Nightmare" status behind, and has evolved almost exclusively into a spot-up shooter. In just 14 games with Cleveland, Smith has hoisted 113 three-pointers (!). As the embedded video above shows, J.R. has stupid athleticism, but also in his quiver is an effortless jumper. He's streaky, sure, but seemingly in any game I wager against J.R., he gets hot. Smith's game itself may not be as entertaining going forward as it once was, but if the Cavs make a run, I very much look forward to listening Smith's post-game commentary. Dude is a treasure.

Gerald Green -- G/F Phoenix Suns -- (Another) Former Dunk Contest Champ

Go have some fun with Gerald Green on YouTube. Green is probably best known for his insane bounce, but he's also shooting 38% from 3 on a ton of attempts (only 8 players in the NBA have attempted more). And I would still argue Green is a better shooter than his percentage indicates. To me, Green is the undisputed "Gambling Nightmare" guy because he takes and makes shots that cannot be topped on the Degree of Difficulty scale. Bottom line.

Honorable Mention: Lou Williams (G--Toronto Raptors)



Tuesday, December 23, 2014

NBA Miscellany -- Part II

NBA League Pass is the gift that keeps on giving this holiday season. College basketball is in the midst of its annual pre-conference play boringness, so I’ve spent a lot of time watching The Association lately.

If you're not familiar with how League Pass works: the games that aren’t nationally televised are carried by each team’s regional network; each team has the same announcers call each of its games – home or away. As a result, I’ve developed a rapport with some broadcast crews, and I’ve been forced to mute others.

It’s fun to pick up on funny/quirky/downright uncomfortable things said during these games. For instance, these dudes will comically call a player exclusively by his nickname for the entirety of the game. Here are my favorites thus far:

“Banger” – Aron Baynes – San Antonio Spurs/FSSW

Near the beginning of the season I was watching a Spurs game while I was preoccupied with something else. I didn’t even see Baynes enter the game, but heard Bill Land and Sean Elliot say “Banger” three or four times in as many possessions. I literally had no idea what the hell they were talking about, until I put two and two together. It was glorious. Unrelated note: these two are a Top 5 Homer Crew in the league (probably because they’re so spoiled by the Spurs). After the Spurs lost at home to Portland in triple OT last week, the gloom with which Land signed off the telecast was both hilarious and worrisome.

“Dragon” – Goran Dragic – Phoenix Suns/FSAZ

The best part about this one is Dragic always has the ball in his hands – leading to more and more exclamatory "Dragon" calls from Steve Albert.  Unlike Baynes, Dragic plays big minutes so if Albert exclusively called Dragic by his nickname it would be unbearably hammered into the ground. This crew is a hoot. 

“Flamethrower” – Ryan Anderson – New Orleans Pelicans/FSNO

This is my favorite. Sure, there are stretches when Anderson is unconscious from anywhere on the court, and at 6’10, that causes big problems for opposing defenses. But this guy is shooting 34% from 3, and has reached the 40% clip in only one season. It may be time for Joel Meyers and David Wesley to retire this nickname until further notice.  

------

Now a few tidbits from the last couple days:

Spurs Gonna Spur

The Spurs continue to consistently generate the best half-court looks of any NBA team. In this first sequence, Marco Belinelli gets a back-screen from the Red Rocket, and cuts toward the rim. LaMarcus Aldridge, not wanting to leave Bonner (40% 3-pt. shooter) open from 3, fails to bump Belinelli on his cut. End result is a great look from one crafty foreigner to another for a lay-up. If you watch the video a few times, consider this: I have zero idea what in the world Chris Kaman is doing hugging Thiago Splitter 18 feet from the basket on the weak-side, but he is. 


Jrue "Insert Holiday Pun Here" Holiday

I've become a big fan of Jrue Holiday's floor game this year. Much like John Wall, Holiday has always been incredibly gifted but is just now harnessing that wealth of talent. Holiday is 5th in the NBA in AST/TO ratio among 30+ mpg players. He rarely seems to play at a pace that he's uncomfortable with -- an encouraging sign from a guy who has the ability to run with/stay in front of anybody if need be. 

Look at these two, late 4Q defensive possessions against the Thunder. Holiday did a terrific job staying in front of the weapon of mass destruction that is Russell Westbrook: